Skilled labor shortage in Germany

Will the use of digital technologies mitigate the consequences of the skilled labor shortage?

Innovative applications from the Fraunhofer Institute for Computer Graphics Research IGD shorten the length of time taken by individual calculations in planning processes by more than 90 percent. This opens up possibilities for significantly accelerating these processes and achieving a better-qualified workforce. At the same time, the ability to process large data sets improves the quality of decision-making. Intuitive visualization also makes it easier to access decision-relevant content. Accelerated processes, efficiency gains and quality improvements go hand in hand.

The technologies outlined here exhibit different levels of potential. What they all have in common is that they not only support planning processes, the drive towards a better-qualified workforce and improved decision-making, but also lead to significantly enhanced performance. The use of Fraunhofer IGD technologies thus helps to mitigate potential labor shortages, especially of skilled workers, and to realize productivity gains.

A widely recognized phenomenon: Labor shortages (in particular skilled workers) are on the rise

Recruiting skilled workers is becoming ever more difficult and costly. This applies to a large number of technical professions, including those involving of development, planning and quality assurance.1 The difficulty of attracting younger people into non-technical professions (e.g. patient care) is well documented, with far-reaching consequences for Germany’s competitiveness and innovative strength.

Demographic trends will continue to present a significant decline in the supply of labor in the coming years. The working-age population will fall by 3.5 million people by 2035 and by 4.4 million by 2040 (see chart).2 This is equivalent to 7% and 10% of the current workforce. Low birth rates in Germany and Europe are exacerbating the situation. Even the influx of workers from abroad will not be sufficient to make up the shortfall. And all the while, the demand for specific qualifications will increase.

Globalization and decarbonization, increasing mechanization, digitalization and the use of artificial intelligence are already changing the nature of work, and will do so even more in the future. Companies are placing new demands on their employees, in particular requiring them to have mastery of digital skills. As a result, potential shortages of labor in general, and of skilled workers in particular, will continue to become more acute.

 

New technologies boost skills and performance

 

Computers and computer-controlled machines can support a wide range of activities and thus achieve significant increases in performance. As a result, digital technologies offer more and more opportunities to mitigate emerging labor and skill shortages. According to the Institut für Arbeitsmarktforschung (Institute for Labor Market Research), around 60 percent of human activities in skilled occupations can be substituted by the use of digital technologies.

This not only brings about productivity increases but also a sensible and desirable reduction in workload, which has the added benefit of creating (technically) more attractive working environments in which the performance of routine tasks can be delegated to technology. This is also important in attracting and recruiting well-qualified newcomers and offering them opportunities for professional development.

We present here some selected technologies from Fraunhofer IGD that show what is already possible today – and how the working world of tomorrow will change.

Digital planning tools accelerate the expansion of fiber optics in Germany

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For some years now, it has been an acknowledged fact that Germany is lagging behind in the rollout of high-speed internet. Deutsche Telekom has set itself the annual target of supplying more than 2.5 million households with fiber optic connections. The company quickly realized that it would not be able to meet this target while following its previous procedures. The reasons for this are the large number of authorities from which approval must be sought, the heterogeneity of the data and data suppliers, the limited availability of specialist labor and the inadequacy of existing planning tools.

Deutsche Telekom therefore commissioned Fraunhofer IGD to design an overall system for the digital planning of fiber optic expansion and to then work with the company in getting it up and running. Ease of use, precision in planning and cost-effective operation were the core objectives. Innovative partial solutions, implemented on state-of-the-art cloud architectures, offer maximum parallel processing of very large quantities of images and ultraprecise 3D point clouds. System users benefit from automated workflows integrated into an interactive solution. This simplifies and accelerates decision-making and the planning of the fiber optic infrastructure down to the last centimeter.

The innovative planning tool has now been used to plan fiber optic connections for more than eight million households. The duration of the planning process has been reduced by as much as 75 percent. Consequently, the limited availability and capacity of specialist planners is better utilized. Without this acceleration, Deutsche Telekom’s expansion targets would not have been achievable. In addition, new calculation methods have reduced the costs for computing resources by a factor of up to 1,000. The runtime of certain process steps fell from 133 to 11 hours. At the same time, the quality of the visualizations has significantly increased the user-friendliness of the working environment.

Training and further education with digital twins: Authoring systems for the cost-effective development and use of training scenarios

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Digital twins have a wide range of applications. In particular, they open up new avenues and areas of application for training and further education. However, the creation of teaching materials remains a major obstacle to cost-effective implementation. The knowledge required for this often exists only in the heads of the training experts. The necessary specialist knowledge in the design of learning content with digital tools is rarely available. Consequently, service providers are brought in from outside – a time-consuming and costly practice which restricts the flexibility of the design.

Fraunhofer IGD has developed efficient authoring systems and workflows that enable trainers to develop, implement and immediately deploy virtual training scenarios, even without personally having any programming knowledge. This shortens or eliminates the need for adaptation cycles. The evaluation showed that savings in time and in costs were as much as 50 percent and 60 percent respectively.

Fraunhofer IGD’s solutions can, for example, use existing 3D models directly and – if necessary – combine them in order to teach and learn interactively in immersive low-cost environments. They enable the training and further education of individuals as well as entire groups, whose members can learn with and from each other.

This makes training a much more attractive proposition for the learner: content can be “grasped” virtually in the truest sense of the word and is internalized more quickly. The learning process itself is more fun, and teaching becomes more efficient for specialist staff – their knowledge is reflected in reusable training scenarios which can be rolled out over and over again.

Integrated control centers for the visual support of decision-making

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Sound decision-making should always take into account the relevant rules, regulations and current data. It often takes a lot of time to collect this data and prepare it in a user-friendly way.

Fraunhofer IGD is developing visual control centers for different application contexts. These bring together relevant data from the main sources, filter it and prepare it visually, thereby enabling specialists to quickly pick out the crucial information. The focus here is on task-specific information and knowledge requirements. Fraunhofer IGD’s solutions are used in care facilities, in information security and in production – always with individualized information visualizations. The dashboards offer interactive access to intelligent analysis functions.

In the case of care facilities, for example, Fraunhofer IGD has adapted its virtual control centers in such a way that the nursing staff have an overview of all the vital data of the patients on a particular ward. To enhance the connection to the real world and facilitate orientation, the information is superimposed on a virtual 3D model. This makes it easier for staff to recognize and pinpoint critical situations.

The innovative solution concept of interactive visual analysis also displays advantages in other areas, for example in countering cyber-attacks or in production, where it increases the efficiency of specialists, who can see all the crucial information at a glance, in some cases for the very first time. This allows them to focus more of their time on fulfilling their core tasks.

Outlook

This first outlook on innovations for the working world of tomorrow shows a broad spectrum of application options based on three Fraunhofer IGD technologies that benefit companies and organizations in various industries: 1) digital 3D planning tools; 2) authoring systems for training and further education on functional 3D models; 3) visual control centers. The range of applications for digital technologies is suitable for telecommunications and infrastructure planning companies, for the manufacturing industry, for the healthcare sector and for IT security providers. Work processes become more transparent, gaining in quality and speed, and decisions are made on a sounder basis. At the same time, these exemplary solutions help to mitigate the shortage of skilled workers and improve the quality of work. They allow specialists to concentrate on the skills in which they excel.

Fraunhofer IGD knows from discussions with its customers that a great deal of potential can be leveraged with dedicated and/or individualized solutions, e.g. by eliminating repetitive manual intermediate steps, by automating existing workflows or by establishing new ones. Fraunhofer IGD contributes its expertise in 3D computer graphics, computer vision, artificial intelligence and visualization.

This insight into our innovation landscape will be continued in a series of publications. We combine the technical expertise of Fraunhofer IGD with an economic and socio-political perspective. This is where the Prognos team makes its contribution. Technology development and application do not take place in the laboratory, but in a concrete living and working environment, the needs of which are fully appreciated by us.

FRAUNHOFER IGD

Fraunhofer IGD has been setting standards in visual computing for over 30 years. We accomplish this with a unique range of skills and technologies that we can flexibly combine to suit your particular needs and wishes.

Visual computing is image- and model-based information processing that blends computer graphics and computer vision. Put simply, it describes the ability to turn information into images and extract information from pictures. It is the basis of all the technological solutions used by Fraunhofer IGD and its partners.

Computer graphics involves processing and editing images, graphics, and multidimensional models with the aid of computers. Examples are virtual and simulated reality applications.

Computer vision is about teaching computers to “see.” A machine uses a camera to scan its surroundings and then processes the information with software. Examples include augmented reality.

PROGNOS

Prognos AG is one of Europe’s oldest research companies specializing in economics. We have been producing analyses for companies, professional associations, foundations and organizations in the public sector since 1959. Working closely with our clients, we provide them with the necessary scope for shaping the future through research, consulting and support. Proven models provide the basis for reliable forecasts and scenarios. Employing more than 200 experts, the company has offices in no fewer than ten major European cities, namely Basel, Berlin, Bremen, Brussels, Düsseldorf, Freiburg, Hamburg, Munich Stuttgart and Vienna (there as subsidiary Prognos Europe GmbH).

Our project teams work on an interdisciplinary basis, combining theory and practice, science, business and politics.